P r e s s R e l e a s e
Florida's 7th Congressional District, October 16, 2006: The results of a scientific poll of Florida's 7th Congressional District race between John ("Jack") Chagnon and John Mica (R) were released today. The polling was conducted from Oct. 4 - Oct. 11 by Einhorn & Lewis, Inc. of Daytona Beach, one of the most experienced and respected bipartisan political polling firms in East-Central Florida.
The sample of 501 likely voters was collected from randomly-sequenced data obtained from elections supervisors in all six counties of the 7th District (between Orlando and Jacksonville): Flagler (Palm Coast), Orange (N. Orlando), Putnam, St. Johns (St. Augustine), Seminole (N. Orlando Suburbs), and Volusia (Daytona Beach/Deltona). The stratified sample matched the current distribution of registered voters in the District by gender, race, party affiliation, and county of residence. All results refer to likely voters and have a 4 percent margin of error, unless otherwise indicated.
About the 7th Congressional District:
The 7th District is of interest nationally. Besides boasting the headquarters for NASCAR, it has over 475,700 registered voters, quite probably the most of any of the 435 Congressional Districts in the country. The District's huge voting population is primarily due to its high registration rate and the presence of the fastest and sixth fastest growing U.S. counties, Flagler and St. Johns. Moreover, as Florida has been shifting from "Red" toward "Purple," the 7th District is likely to be a key battleground (the eastern half of the I-4 Beltway) in a state likely to determine who our next President will be.
Based on the September lists of registered voters, the 7th District is underrepresented by minorities; it is 83% white, 7% black, 5% Hispanic, 1% Asian, and 4% Other. Women hold a 54% to 46% advantage over Men. Geographically, Volusia County has the largest share of the District's registered voters (35%), followed by St. Johns (26%), Seminole (23%), Flagler (11%), Putnam (4%), and Orange (1.4%).
Poll Results on Voting and Voting Patterns:
Major redistricting in 2002 and enormous population growth since the seven-term incumbent last appeared on the ballot contributed to voter unfamiliarity with their Congressional representative. Only a month before the election, most voters (65%) of the 7th District could not name their Congressman, and when told his name, a majority (52%) reported they have no opinion about him. Although Democratic challenger John ("Jack") Chagnon's grassroots campaign has not yet made his name known to most District voters, incumbent Mica has failed to nail down this race.
The poll found that if the election were held today, more than a third of likely voters remain on the fence (35% undecided), leaving Mica with less than a majority (45%). This contrasts with the 2002 race when Mica trounced multi-millionaire Wayne Hogan by nearly 20 points. With Jack Chagnon scheduling his mass mailings and media buys for October and national polls chronicling a trend away from GOP candidates, the race could become much more competitive by Election Day.
Two other poll findings offer the Chagnon campaign further reason to hope for an upset: likely voter patterns and the issues of greatest voter concern in the 7th District. First, as seen in other polls nationwide, the Einhorn & Lewis data indicated an unusually strong turnout for a midterm election. Over three quarters (77%) of registered voters in the District reported they were likely to vote in the November 7 General Election.
The likely voter pattern also is favorable to Chagnon and validates predictions of a depressed turnout by Republicans this November. In a District where the GOP now hold a seven-point registration edge over Democrats (42% to 35%), the poll found a 15 point gap between Republicans versus Democrats (45% to 30%) responding they were not "likely" to vote next month.
How Candidate Positions May Affect Voting:
The second factor improving Chagnon's chances for making the race competitive is his stance on issues affecting how people say they will vote. The poll asked voters about policy issues where a clear difference exists between Chagnon and Mica. The issues were support for an Iraq timetable, stem-cell research, combating global warming, reforming No Child Left Behind, slashing the Deficit, and increasing veterans' programs.
In this age of increasing polarization, respondents who felt very strongly about these issues dominated the poll numbers. For issues familiar to them, most respondents (79% to 87%) claimed that a candidate's stance would "very likely" decide their vote. And few District voters (between 13% and 24%) reported a lack of knowledge about these issues. However, the poll finds that voters strongly share the positions supported by Jack Chagnon and the Democratic Party (and opposed by Mica and the GOP). Thus, voters in the 7th District may be susceptible to Chagnon campaign blitz to educate voters about how he shares their views.
The first issue polled asked about "supports a timetable for the U.S. to begin withdrawing troops from Iraq." Jack Chagnon strongly supports a timetable, and Mica is on record as voting against it. Yet, among informed respondents, 55% are very likely to vote for a candidate with this position, twice the percentage who are very unlikely to vote for such a candidate (28%). In fact, even among Republican voters polled, very likely is a close second to very unlikely (30% vs. 38%, with a margin of error of 5.5 points).
A nearly two-to-one result similarly characterizes the contentious issue of supporting "Federal Funding of Embryonic Stem-Cell Research." Mica voted against Federal funding, directly opposite of Jack Chagnon's stated position on this issue and inconsistent with voter preferences. Although 30% of informed respondents are very unlikely to vote for a candidate with this position, according to the poll, 57% are very likely to.
While Jack Chagnon advocates reforming NCLB and fighting Global Warming with non-greenhouse gas subsidies, stronger CAFÉ standards, and reining in the power of petroleum companies, Mica consistently votes against such bills, earning the Congressman a zero rating by environmental groups. Yet, a candidate who "Supports new programs to combat Global Warming" enjoys an even stronger advantage among 7th District voters who claim knowledge of this issue: 63% very likely to vote for, as compared with only 18% very unlikely. Clearer still is voter preference for a candidate who "Supports making Reforms to No Child Left Behind," Bush's controversial education policy. More than four times as many are very likely to vote for that candidate (64%) than very unlikely (15%).
Among the issues polled, cutting deficits and funding veterans programs have the most overwhelming support in the District. Mica recently voted to cut funding for veterans, and he has voted to increase the Debt Limit each session of the Bush era, enabling the GOP Congress to take the country from record Clinton surpluses to record deficits and doubling the National Debt. In stark contrast, Jack Chagnon has made pay as you go and fiscal responsibility the centerpiece of his campaign. Voting for a candidate who "Supports large reductions to the Federal Budget Deficit" elicits a 74% very likely to 11% very unlikely ratio, exceeded only by "Supports increasing Federal spending on Veterans programs" at 74% very likely to 8% very unlikely.
Contact: John Larmett, Communications Director
Larmett@aol.com or Chagnon4Congress@aol.com
Cell Phone: 703-203-1322